Thursday October 29 ยท 6 names, 9 customs โ bots filling to 6v6 all night
six of us, so no sheet. A night without a sheet still gets graded, because the model that would have built one was sitting right there. Everything below is the real record, priced with that model as it stood before the first game. Night 88 of a record that starts 2025-02-09.
No run sheet this week โ the teams were made on the night. So there are no planned splits on this page, because there were none. What there is: the real rosters from the match record, each priced with the model exactly as it stood before the night, and graded honestly against what happened. Every game ran with bots filling both sides to 6v6, as always. 9 customs, 6 names, nobody sat.
| time | humans | side A | side B | A odds | call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:17pm | 3v3 | Jared+Michael+Zach | Ice+Jonathan+Tomas | 36% | โ |
| 6:36pm | 3v3 | Jared+Michael+Zach | Ice+Jonathan+Tomas | 36% | โ |
| 7:03pm | 3v3 | Ice+Jared+Michael | Jonathan+Tomas+Zach | 61% | โ |
| 7:24pm | 3v3 | Ice+Jared+Michael | Jonathan+Tomas+Zach | 61% | โ |
| 7:44pm | 3v3 | Ice+Jared+Michael | Jonathan+Tomas+Zach | 61% | โ |
| 8:00pm | 3v3 | Ice+Jared+Zach | Jonathan+Michael+Tomas | 41% | โ |
| 8:25pm | 3v3 | Jonathan+Tomas+Zach | Ice+Jared+Michael | 39% | โ |
| 8:45pm | 3v3 | Jonathan+Tomas+Zach | Ice+Jared+Michael | 39% | โ |
| 9:06pm | 3v3 | Jonathan+Tomas+Zach | Ice+Jared+Michael | 39% | โ |
Winner in gold. The pre-night favourite went 7โ2, and side A won 3 against 4.1 expected. Crowns: ๐ฏ kills Ice 380 ยท ๐ healing Zach 94k ยท ๐งฑ damage soaked Ice 162k. Kill leaders: Ice 380/80 ยท Tomas 335/111 ยท Michael 326/73 ยท Jonathan 291/67 ยท Zach 283/89 ยท Jared 153/100.
The repetition receipt: Jonathan+Tomas rode together 9 of 9 shared games against the 3.6 a random split deals, and the night's mean pair excess was 2.72, against an average of 1.62 across the 4 sheet-built nights on record.
Did the prices hold? Yes โ the favourite won 7 of 9, and nobody's run of games landed outside what the prices allowed. Across all 6 players, the correlation between what the model rated a player and how their night went was +0.50 โ the ratings and the night pointed the same way.
9 customs, no site-built sheet, 8 names. The favourite went 2โ7 and side A won 3 against 4.6 expected. Kill leaders: Kyle 377/53 ยท Tomas 298/77 ยท Don 270/63 ยท Michael 254/63.
Repetition that night: Jonathan+Kyle together 6 of 6, mean pair excess 1.631. Full grade in the data.
Odds = a Bradley-Terry team strength model fit on our full record of decisive customs, validated at 60% accuracy on 191 held-out even-sided games it had never seen, with confidence shrunk by 0.8 to what our stated odds have actually cashed at. Rated players carry a fit on their last 90 days of games; newer and thinner records use their full-record fit, older games faded on a 90-day half-life. Full receipts at marvelgooners.com.