RIVALS 2.0 · WEEK THREE — PLAYED
The Run Sheet
✅ How it actually went — Friday 7/31
Twelve games, 4:17–7:58pm. Teams got improvised on the night rather than run off the sheet below, which is fine — the sheet is a starting point, not a contract.
Kyle8-3-1 · 446 kills · top fragger in 7 of 12 · 62-kill peak
Ice7-4-1 · 381 kills · closed the night 27-0 on Moon Knight
Don7-4-1 · the night he argued for the data-backed splits, the data paid him
Tomas5-6-1 · 349 kills · a 52-kill game
Justin4-7-1 · 259 kills · a 47-kill game
Zach2-9-1 · equal-worst night on his card
And the odds graded well. Across the eleven decisive games the favoured side averaged just 52.8% — about as balanced as a night can get — and favourites won 8 of 11. Three upsets: games 1, 5 and 11. One draw on Hall of Djalia.
Full per-player breakdowns are in the Hero Lab dossiers, rewritten after this night.
Friday July 31 · 4:00–8:00 PM · this night has been played (results above). Six confirmed, 3v3, bots fill the gaps: Tomas · Kyle · Ice · Zach · Justin · Don. Host: Zach. Bots are neutral — our own data says bot count doesn't move the scoreboard, so cope elsewhere. Teams below are Don's plan as amended by the group vote on 7/30. Four of the five splits are exactly what the model picked; Series 1 was swapped by vote and is labelled with what the numbers actually say about it. Two lenses now sit on every series: Elo (team strength) and chemistry (who wins together — Zach's metric).
⚠ Rated on 2026 FORM, not career
Fresh 1500 start, this year's games only. Your career stats mean nothing here — ball out lately and the balancer cooks you for it.
Tomas 1684Kyle 1576Ice 1557Zach 1518Justin 1455Don 1453
Yes Tomas, 1684 is why you're carrying every Team A — and it's earned: +9.0 over the odds across 90 days, best form ledger in the lobby.
⚖ The Decrees
- Role queue: no repeating a role within a series — healer game 1 means tank or DPS game 2. Tiebreaker game: role queue OFF.
- Timeouts: one 30-second timeout per team per game. Use it like the pros.
- Host (Zach) runs the clock: 5 min lobby between series · discretionary lobby time between games · 1 min on select. Banker rules.
- Comms: team-only chat during games. Talk your shit between them.
- Bans: Ban Series only. Everything else no-ban.
- No-shows / leavers: quick swap to keep it even — the balancer re-splits in one tap.
🆕 The Late Tax
2+ hours notice = exempt. No notice? Clock starts at 4:00 and it stacks every 15 minutes: 15 min → your #1 hero banned for your first series (not the fun games) · 30 min → top 2 · 45 min → top 3 · one more every 15 after. Roll in at 5:30 and you're basically playing randoms.
The data decides, not you. "Top heroes" = most-played in customs, all-time. Here is the exact ladder, so nobody argues at 4:15:
Tomas1. The Punisher → 2. Namor → 3. Iron Man
Kyle1. Iron Man → 2. Peni Parker → 3. Namor
Ice1. Moon Knight → 2. Bruce Banner → 3. Iron Man
Zach1. Cloak & Dagger → 2. Star-Lord → 3. Loki
Justin1. The Punisher → 2. Jeff → 3. Hela
Don1. Thor → 2. Mantis → 3. The Punisher
4:00WARM-UPAll-random mirror, zero stakes. Load in, feel the patch, let the late tax accrue on whoever's driving.
4:30
1SERIES 1
best of 3 · no bans · role queue on (tiebreaker: off)
57–43
🗳 swapped by group vote (7/30) — the original split was Tom/Don/Justin vs Ice/Kyle/Zach⚠️ Elo reads this 57–43, not 48–52: Tomas 1684 + Kyle 1576 on one side is the heaviest legal pair in the pool🤝 but by CHEMISTRY (who actually wins together, 2026) it is the fairest split available — 49.6 vs 49.5💚 heal cover — A: Don 27% · B: Justin 42% + Zach 22%
5:15
2SERIES 2
best of 3 · no bans · role queue on (tiebreaker: off)
53–47
💚 B's entire healing plan is Justin — he heals 42% of the time, Ice 6% and Kyle 13%. If Justin locks Punisher, nobody heals.🛡 A has the only true tank main (Don 38%); Tomas tanks 7% of the time⚡ Tomas+Zach 52% over 106 games — the most-tested pair here, and dead even
6:00
3THE BAN SERIES
best of 3 · ban round before every game · role queue on (tiebreaker: off)
53–47
🚫 ban round before EVERY game⚠️ A has no tank main (Tomas 7%, Justin 7%, Zach 27%) — B is three tank-capable bodies. Ban accordingly.💚 A: Justin + Zach · B: Don is the only healer on the roster
6:50
4SERIES 4
best of 3 · no bans · role queue on (tiebreaker: off)
56–44
⚡ Ice+Tomas together = 63% over 78 games in 2026 — the hottest pair in this lobby🎯 the "prove the odds wrong" series: B is a 44% underdog on paper💚 both sides covered — A: Don 27% · B: Justin 42% + Zach 22%
7:30
5THE FINALE
best of 3 · no bans · role queue on (tiebreaker: off)
48–52
⚖ 48–52 — the closest split the model found, and after the Series 1 swap it is no longer a repeat of anything🤝 chemistry agrees: 51.8 vs 50.0 — the one split where BOTH lenses call it even📊 if the night is tied, this is the tiebreak that counts
8:00FINAL WHISTLEEvery game gets harvested into the record — the site updates this weekend, dossiers included. Whatever happens tonight, it's evidence by Sunday.